“The withholding data should be very strong going forward, but we don’t want to get too excited. Nevertheless, the jump in withholdings that we have seen can account for even more new jobs than that.”
If you make comparisons of federal withholdings from the same day of the week for 2010 as for 2009 for the month of May (ie May 10th 2010 being a Monday vs May 11 2009 being a Monday), then we’re currently running about 1-2% higher year over year for most days this month per your data.
Also, you “could” be way off with the job gain assumptions. Transfer payments and nominal pay increases could make up most if not all the 1-2% yoy increase (they’re probably all a result of transfer payments).
Second, the increase in withholdings could indicate that there were more job gains in April 2010 vs April 2009 (there are always job gains every April before seasonal adjustments) but the seasonal adjustments this year could conceivably subtract everyone of them out, because there weren’t as many jobs added this April as in a typical April (over the past 10 years, for example). For example, we know that the Establishment report indicated that 290k jobs were gained on net after seasonal adjustments in April: however, 188k of them were from the fictional birth/death adjustment. So if you minus them out, as well as census jobs, you’re basically at no seasonally adjusted net job growth. But like I said, there was definitely much better non-seasonally job growth in April 2010 (970k when b/d adjustments are negated) vs non-seasonally adjusted job growth in April 2009 (214k). And that’s probably what you’re seeing with some of the increase yoy in withholdings, even though all the jobs added this April could be eliminated in the Establishment survey by the seasonal adjustments.
“Growth accelerated from 4.05% in the last period to 4.32% in this period. (You can knock off about a half percent from the last three bars to adjust for the Census Bureau’s payroll of temporary workers.) ”
Uh, did you do that already? So 4.32 – 0.5 < 4.05 would indicate "core" deceleration?
That chart uses the unadjusted data series. Also, the note says: “the last three bars.” Of course, the Census Bureau has had a large payroll for many weeks. If the last three bars on the chart were reduced by a half percent, there would still be an uptrend.
Does anybody know whether it is possible to download the tax receipts data into excel? thanks
angel_serrat,
We don’t offer a download feature at this time. However, we may do so in the future.
Matt
“The withholding data should be very strong going forward, but we don’t want to get too excited. Nevertheless, the jump in withholdings that we have seen can account for even more new jobs than that.”
If you make comparisons of federal withholdings from the same day of the week for 2010 as for 2009 for the month of May (ie May 10th 2010 being a Monday vs May 11 2009 being a Monday), then we’re currently running about 1-2% higher year over year for most days this month per your data.
Also, you “could” be way off with the job gain assumptions. Transfer payments and nominal pay increases could make up most if not all the 1-2% yoy increase (they’re probably all a result of transfer payments).
Second, the increase in withholdings could indicate that there were more job gains in April 2010 vs April 2009 (there are always job gains every April before seasonal adjustments) but the seasonal adjustments this year could conceivably subtract everyone of them out, because there weren’t as many jobs added this April as in a typical April (over the past 10 years, for example). For example, we know that the Establishment report indicated that 290k jobs were gained on net after seasonal adjustments in April: however, 188k of them were from the fictional birth/death adjustment. So if you minus them out, as well as census jobs, you’re basically at no seasonally adjusted net job growth. But like I said, there was definitely much better non-seasonally job growth in April 2010 (970k when b/d adjustments are negated) vs non-seasonally adjusted job growth in April 2009 (214k). And that’s probably what you’re seeing with some of the increase yoy in withholdings, even though all the jobs added this April could be eliminated in the Establishment survey by the seasonal adjustments.
“Growth accelerated from 4.05% in the last period to 4.32% in this period. (You can knock off about a half percent from the last three bars to adjust for the Census Bureau’s payroll of temporary workers.) ”
Uh, did you do that already? So 4.32 – 0.5 < 4.05 would indicate "core" deceleration?
Best,
Whitney,
That chart uses the unadjusted data series. Also, the note says: “the last three bars.” Of course, the Census Bureau has had a large payroll for many weeks. If the last three bars on the chart were reduced by a half percent, there would still be an uptrend.
Matt