These charts are delayed by 90 days. Click here to subscribe and see the real-time charts in the Members section.
The right-most bars on these charts are for 2Q10, and will bounce around a good deal early in the quarter. They will eventually settle down as they are calculated from more and more data points.
Note: Current Quarter = 4.26%
The next chart is the same as above, but uses the data series adjusted for the “Making Work Pay” tax credit which reduced withholdings beginning in April 2009. Click here for an explanation of the adjusted data. Beginning with 2Q10, the values for both charts are the same because the tax-credit was in effect for more than a year.
Note: Current Quarter = 4.26%
Hey Matt, I’ve been following your stuff ever since a guy on bill cara’s blog pointed me at them a year ago. Happy to see them back again. My question:
The label says Q/Q growth. Does that mean you’re tracking this quarter vs. last quarter, or are you tracking this quarter over that same quarter 12 months prior? In your old chart, you did the latter. Still the same?
Another question: in the series adjusted for “making work pay”, did you also adjust for the similar program back in ‘02?
If you’re too busy to answer a question from a non-paying leech like me, I understand. Thanks for all you have provided over the last year…
Dave,
Yes, it is the same chart. The only difference is that the one on this page is now on a delay.
No, I haven’t tried to adjust for the tax cuts during the last recession. I may take a swing at it in the future though. The first time that I researched it, I couldn’t come up with any estimates at all from the various government agencies. But I suppose even a very rough estimate would be better than none at all. The curve of the chart would be adjusted upward for that period, which would make this recession look even worse by comparison.
Matt